The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
When I first time heard the book, I just felt that this is probably another theory book. However, after starting to read it, things changed. I finally liked it. "The Age of Spiritual Machines" is destined to become one of the more important books of the late 20th Century.
Kurzweil has ratcheted up the human-versus-artificial intelligence debate a few notches. There will, he makes clear, be no human intelligence versus artificial intelligence. Our computers and we will become one. "There is a plethora of credible scenarios for achieving human-level intelligence in a machine," writes Kurzweil. "We will be able to evolve and train a system combining massively parallel neural nets with other paradigms to understand language and model knowledge, including the ability to read and understand written documents."
Kurzweil’s own law of accelerating growth and return is centered on the idea that this new bio-digital species becomes increasingly learned and sophisticated, life will become more orderly and efficient, while technological development continues to accelerate. Kurzweil’s premise – that computers will become as smart as we are and then merge their intelligence with ours -- is not only challenging and provocative; it also makes sense. But he isn’t as clear or coherent when it comes to divining just what kind of intelligence computers will have – how intuitive they can be, how individualistic or ethical.
By the second decade of the next century, there will be reports of computers passing the Turing Intelligence test, says Kurzweil. The rights of machine intelligence will become a public policy issue. But machine intelligence will still largely be the product of collaborations between humans and machines, computers still programmed to maintain a subservient relationship to the species that created them.
Where his book and his vision stumble is in grasping what will happen to us when computers become smarter than we are, then sensual, social or spiritual. Will we better off? Will the computer be moral? Will it have a social or other consciousness? Do we wish to merge with computers into one species? Will we have any choice? We could be heading for a sci-fi nightmare or, alternatively, for another of those utopian visions that used to pepper Wired magazine before it became the property of Conde Nast. While futurists can measure or plot the computational skills of tomorrow’s computers, can anyone really know the precise nature of that intelligence, and whether or not it can replicate the functions of the human brain?
The idea of our being outsmarted, thus dominated and endangered by computers, has been portrayed as a nightmare in Stanley Kurbrick’s "2001" (Kubrick apparently greatly underestimated the virtual person Hal would become). It’s also surfaced in various rosy intergalactic Disney-like visions in which machines perform labor, clean the air, heal humans, teach kids. Kurzweil doesn’t say which notion, if either, sounds more plausible.
The latter half of the book becomes essentially a time-line: Kurzweil somberly walks us through the evolution of computing intelligence, and the eventual merging of digital technology and human beings into a new species.
By 2009, Kurzweil predicts, human musicians will routinely jam with cybernet musicians. Bioengineered treatments will have greatly reduced the mortality from cancer and heart disease. But human opposition to advancing technology will also be growing, an expanding neo-Luddite movement.
By 2019, nonetheless, Kurzweil predicts that computers will be largely invisible, embedded in walls, furniture, clothing and bodies – sort of like the artwork in Bill Gates’ massive new mansion. People will use three-dimensional displays built into their glasses, "direct eye" displays that create highly realistic, virtual visual environments that overlay real environments. Paraplegics will routinely walk and climb stairs through a combination of computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic devices. This display technology projects images directly onto the human retina, exceeds the resolution of human vision, and will be widely used regardless of visual impairment.
By the year 2099, a strong trend towards the merger of human thinking with the world of machine intelligence that humans created will be underway. There will no longer by any clear distinction between humans and computers. Most conscious entities will not have a permanent physical presence. Life expectancy will no longer be a viable term in relation to intelligent beings.
Small wonder Kurzweill expects a growing discussion about the legal rights of computers and what constitutes being "human." Direct neural pathways will have been perfected for high-bandwidth connection to the human brain. A range of neural implants will be available to enhance visual and auditory perception, machine-generated literature and multi-media material.
There are some things I dislike: He takes Roger Penrose seriously, he fails to mention Racter in the discussion of computer authors, and he spends just a wee bit too much time tooting his own horn (Kurzweil Computer Products, Kurzweil Reading Machine, Kurzweil Data Entry Machine, Kurzweil Music Systems, Kurzweil Applied Intelligence, Kurzweil Education Systems, Ray Kurzweil Cybernetic Poet...) But to be fair, he HAS pioneered in all these areas, so perhaps he has earned his immodesty.
Overall, a fascinating, thought-provoking book which is not afraid to make concrete predictions. Given Kurzweils track record, he may just prove to be 100% right.
References
Ray Kurzweil, (1999) The Age of Spiritual Machines
Miastkowski, S. (1999) ‘Voice Xpress 4 eases training’, PC World, May.
Winograd, T. and Flores, F. (1986) Understanding Computers and Cognition, Norwood NJ, Ablex.
Winograd, T. (1985) ‘Moving the semantic fulcrum’, Linguistics and Philosophy, 8(1): 91-104.
The Age Of Spiritual Machines: How We Will Live, Work And Think In The New Age Of Intelligent Machines.
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